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Worldwide High Performance Computing (HPC) 2015 Total Market Model and 2016–2020 Forecast

by Addison Snell, Christopher G. Willard, Ph.D., Laura Segervall
for Intersect360 Research
September 2016

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

This Intersect360 Research report presents the 2015 total market model and five-year forecast for the overall High Performance Computing (HPC) market, including servers, storage, services, software, networks and other products. The forecast horizon is from 2016 through 2020, with compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) using 2015 as a base.
 
2015 saw continued realignment of supplier position based on sale of IBM’s x86 server business to Lenovo. Expectations varied by economic sector, but were generally more bullish than supplier results might suggest. Cloud computing maintained a high level of interest, even as current spending remained relatively low.
 
We continue to believe the fundamental growth drivers of the HPC market remain strong. However, we believe that spending in public sectors is currently constrained by a long-term shift towards government austerity policies, particularly in the United States and Europe. Thus we expect commercial and industrial spending to become an increasingly important part of the overall HPC market.
 
Some of the key findings of this report include:
 
·       Total worldwide HPC market (servers, storage, software, etc.) reached $28.6 billion in 2015, up 2.7% from 2014.
·       Intersect360 Research projects HPC revenue compound annual growth rate to be 5.2% CAGR from 2015 to 2020, reaching $36.9 billion at the end of the forecast period.
·       Servers were the largest component, reaching $10.6 billion (4.0% growth over 2014).
·       Industrial HPC is the driving engine of the market growing at 6.8% over the forecast period.
·       Academia showing some strength but will continue with moderate growth at 3.2% CAGR over the forecast period.
·       Government austerity programs show no signs of loosening up leading to a 3.0% CAGR over the forecast period.
 
The ultrascale internet segment continued its expansion and maturation, to the point where we now consider it a distinct market. As such, starting this year, Intersect360 Research will track it as a separate super-segment, under the more widely accepted name of hyperscale. Data and analysis for the hyperscale market are not included in this report and will be analyzed separately. Previous years’ High Performance Business Computing (HPBC) data has been adjusted for the removal of this segment.
 

TECHNOLOGIES COVERED IN THIS REPORT        

 
·       HPC system elements
o   Systems, clusters
o   Server technologies
·       Storage elements
o   Storage systems
·       Interconnect elements
o   System interconnects
·       Software elements
o   Operating systems
·       Services
·       Cloud computing, grid computing, utility computing
·       Other technology trends
o   Big Data trends
o   Government programs or investment in HPC

 

COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT

 
·       Amazon
·       AMD
·       Baidu
·       Dell
·       Google
·       HP
·       IBM
·       Intel
·       Lenovo
·       SGI

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........... 1
TECHNOLOGIES COVERED IN THIS REPORT........... 2
COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT........... 3
INTRODUCTION........... 6
METHODOLOGY........... 7
MARKET DYNAMICS AND ASSUMPTIONS........... 8
End-User Research: Budget Growth and Expectations........ 8
Year-Over-YearGrowth........ 8
Table1:2014–2015Year-Over-YearBudgetGrowthand2015-2016Expectations.... 9
Budget Change Expectations........ 9
Table 2: Top-Level Spending Trends Reported by Respondents.... 10
HPC Server Supplier Review........ 11
Figure 1: 2015 HPC Server Market Revenue Share and Change in Share vs. 2014.... 11
IBM and Lenovo........ 12
HPC TOTAL MARKET MODEL........... 13
2015 Market Performance........ 13
Table 3: 2015 vs. 2014 Comparison Total HPC Market Revenue by Product Class.... 13
Storage Growth........ 13
2015–2020 HPC MARKET FORECAST........... 14
Table 4: Total HPC Market Revenue ($, millions) by Product Class.... 14
Figure 2: Total HPC Market Revenue History and Forecast 2011–2020 by Product Class.... 15
Table 4: Total HPC Market Revenue Share by Product Class.... 16
Figure 3: Total HPC Market  Revenue Share History and Forecast 2011–2020 by Product Class.... 16
OUTLOOK FOR ECONOMIC SECTORS........... 17
Table 5: Total HPC Market Revenue History and Forecast by Economic Sector to 2020.... 17
Table 6: Total HPC Market Revenue Share History and Forecast by Economic Sector to 2020.... 17
CONCLUSIONS........... 18
APPENDIX A: HPC MARKET DYNAMICS MODEL AND FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS........... 19
Fundamental Market Assumptions........ 20
Fundamental Drivers........ 20
Fundamental Market Dampeners........ 21
Model-Based Assumptions........ 22
Basic Market Drivers........ 22
Basic Market Dampeners........ 22


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