Worldwide High Performance Computing 2012 Total Market Model and 2013-17 Forecast

by Addison Snell, Christopher G. Willard, Ph.D., Laura Segervall, Michael Feldman
for Intersect360 Research
May 2013

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This Intersect360 Research report presents the 2012 total market model and five-year forecast for the overall High Performance Computing (HPC) market, including servers, storage, services, software, networks and other products. The forecast horizon is from 2013 through 2017, with compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) using 2012 as a base.
 
Intersect360 Research divides the HPC market into two super-segments: High Performance Technical Computing and High Performance Business Computing.
 
This report discusses high-level expectations for the total HPC market and for these two super-segments, with details down to the product-class level. In addition, this report provides historical, current, and future forecasted revenues for servers, storage, software, services and networks for both HPTC and HPBC.
 
Market indicators are currently mixed. On the positive side budget growth expectations are up, there is an increase in spending on hardware, continued economic recovery, and governmental support for HPC outside of the U.S. On the negative side, the overall server market had a weak showing in 2012, public sector spending is still uncertain, particularly in the U.S., and although worldwide economies are appearing to stabilize there is still significant uncertainty as to both short- and long-term growth. Finally, fluctuations in the storage market over the last two years, caused by widespread flooding in Southeast Asia that led to supply-side disruptions in the second half of 2011, acted to obscure year-over-year comparison, with a significant amount of revenue delayed from 2011 and recognized in 2012.
 
The fundamental growth drivers of the HPC market remain strong (see appendix A); however, spending in public sectors remains constrained in many geographical segments by a shift towards government austerity measures for dealing with debt and economic recovery. Thus we expect commercial/industrial spending to become an increasingly important part of the overall HPC market, with HPTC lagging HPBC in growth due to its large public-sector constituency. We expect commercial/industrial spending on HPC to remain relatively strong, potentially outgrowing overall economic performance.
 
Some of the key findings from this report include:
 

• The total HPC market in 2012 was $29.2 billion, up 7.4% from 2011.
• Intersect360 Research projects the HPC revenue compound annual growth rate to be 6.5% from 2012 to 2017, reaching $39.9 billion at the end of the forecast period.
• HPTC contributed 68% of total HPC market revenues in 2011, with HPBC contributing the remaining 32%.
   

TECHNOLOGIES COVERED IN THIS REPORT

• HPC system elements
• Systems, clusters
• Server technologies
• Storage elements
• Storage systems
• Interconnect elements
• System interconnects
• Software elements
• Operating systems
• Services
• Cloud computing, grid computing, utility computing
• Other technology trends
• Big Data trends
• Government programs or investment in HPC