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Worldwide High Performance Computing (HPC) 2011 Total Market Model and 2012-16 Forecast: Overview

by Christopher Willard, Ph.D., Addison Snell, Laura Segervall
for Intersect360 Research
June 2012

This Intersect360 Research report presents the 2011 total market model and five-year forecast for the overall High Performance Computing (HPC) market, including servers, storage, services, software, networks and other products. The forecast horizon is from 2012 through 2016, with compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) using 2011 as a base.

Intersect360 Research divides the HPC market into two super-segments: High Performance Technical Computing (HPTC, formerly referred to as Traditional HPC) and High Performance Business Computing (HPBC, formerly referred to as Edge HPC).

This report discusses high-level expectations for the HPC market and these two “super-segments,” with details down to the product-class level. Intersect360 Research provides historical, current, and future forecasted revenues for servers, storage, software, services and networks for both HPTC and HPBC. More detailed discussions on additional segmentations (e.g., economic sector, server class, vertical and geographic region) will be provided in subsequent Intersect360 Research reports.

We believe that the fundamental growth drivers of the HPC market remain strong (see appendix A), however, we believe that spending in public sectors is currently constrained by a shift towards government austerity measures for dealing with debt and economic recovery. Thus we expect commercial and industrial spending to become an increasingly important part of the overall HPC market, with HPTC lagging HPBC in growth due to its large public-sector constituency. We expect commercial and industrial spending on HPC to remain relatively strong, potentially outgrowing overall economic performance. However, the private sector is not entirely recession-proof. We are seeing some pullback in spending expectations among industrial and commercial buyers, which has led to a conservative outlook for the market at least for the first half of the forecast period.

Some of the key findings from this report include:

  • The total HPC market in 2011 was $26.9 billion, up 5.4% from 2010. This growth represents a return to more “normal” market conditions after several years of volatility set off by the recession.
  • Intersect360 Research projects the HPC revenue compound annual growth rate to be 7.3% from 2011 to 2016, reaching $38.3 billion at the end of the forecast period. The growth will be highest in 2012 due to an expected rebound in storage sales. Growth rates are forecast to moderate in 2013 and then slowly climb through the rest of the forecast period.

HPTC contributed 67% of total HPC market revenues in 2011, with HPBC contributing the remaining 33%.



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