Worldwide HPC 2019 Total Market Model and 2020–2024 Forecast: Products and Services

July 21, 2020|Addison Snell, Christopher G. Willard Ph.D.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This Intersect360 Research report presents the 2019 total market model and five-year forecast for the overall High Performance Computing (HPC) market,
segmented into product and services categories, including servers, storage, services, software, networks, cloud, and other products. The forecast horizon
is from 2020 through 2024, with compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) using 2019 as a base.

Intersect360 Research defines HPC as the use of servers, clusters, and supercomputers—plus associated software, tools, components, storage, and services—for
scientific, engineering, or analytical tasks that are particularly intensive in computation, memory usage, or data management. Intersect360 Research
reports available in this series include the following segmentations:

Products and Services: servers, storage, networks, software, service, cloud, other
Vertical markets: academia, national security, national research labs, national agencies, state or local governments, bio sciences, chemical
engineering, consumer product manufacturing, electronics, energy, financial services, large product manufacturing, media and entertainment, retail,
transportation, other
Regions: North America, EMEA, Asia-Pacific, Latin America
Server class (HPC server revenue): entry-level, midrange, high-end, supercomputer
Cloud categories (HPC cloud revenue): raw cycles, cloud storage, application hosting (SaaS), infrastructure hosting (IaaS, PaaS), other
Software categories (HPC software revenue): operating environments, developer tools, middleware, storage software, transfer costs, application
software, other
Services categories (HPC services revenue): maintenance and repair, system engineering, system integration, training, programming services,
other
HPC server market shares (current year only, not forecast)
HPC storage market shares (current year only, not forecast)

Total HPC market revenue reached $39.0 billion in 2019, growing 8.2% over 2018. This was the tenth consecutive year of growth for the HPC market. The 8.2%
growth slightly exceeded the 7.2% growth Intersect360 Research had forecasted for the year. Reversing the trend from 2018, HPC servers had the lowest
growth rate of any product or service segment. Cloud computing for HPC had its fifth year of double-digit growth in the last six years.

There will be significant disruption to the HPC market as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, primarily seen as a market shortfall in 2020, followed by
a corresponding spike upward in 2021. While the HPC market will lose $1.2 billion over the forecast period, there is no long-term effect to long-term
growth rates, and the HPC market will grow at a 7.1% compound annual growth rate through 2024, to reach $55.0 billion at the end of the forecast period.
The effects of COVID-19 will vary by year and by segment; the methodology is fully described in this report.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS 4

INTRODUCTION 6

What Is HPC? 8

HPC 2019 MARKET PERFORMANCE: PRODUCT CATEGORIES 9

Table 1: Total HPC Market Revenue ($000), 2019 vs. 2018, by Product Category 9

COVID-19 PANDEMIC FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS 10

Figure 1: The Shape of an HPC Recession 12

Figure 2: HPC Revenue ($000) as a Result of 2009 Recession, 2008 – 2013 12

2019–2024 HPC MARKET FORECAST: PRODUCT CATEGORIES 13

Table 2: Total HPC Market Revenue ($000), 2019 Actuals, 2020 to 2024 Forecast, by Product Category 15

Table 3: Year-over-Year Revenue Change, 2020 to 2024 Forecast, by Product Category 15

Figure 3: Total HPC Market Revenue ($000), 2019 Actuals, 2020 to 2024 Forecast, by Product Category 16

CONCLUSIONS 17

APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY 18

COVID-19 19

APPENDIX B: HPC MARKET DYNAMICS MODEL AND FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS 20

Market Maturity 20

Fundamental Market Dynamics Model 21

Figure A1: Traditional HPC Market Dynamics 22

Fundamental Market Assumptions 23

Fundamental Drivers 23

Fundamental Market Dampeners 24

Model-Based Assumptions 25

Basic Market Drivers 25

Basic Market Dampeners 26

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