Worldwide HPC 2019 Total Market Model and 2020–2024 Forecast: Vertical Markets

July 22, 2020|Addison Snell, Christopher G. Willard Ph.D.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This Intersect360 Research report presents the 2019 total market model and five-year forecast for the overall High Performance Computing (HPC) market,
segmented into vertical markets across industry, government, and academia. The forecast horizon is from 2020 through 2024, with compound annual growth
rates (CAGRs) using 2019 as a base.

Intersect360 Research defines HPC as the use of servers, clusters, and supercomputers—plus associated software, tools, components, storage, and services—for
scientific, engineering, or analytical tasks that are particularly intensive in computation, memory usage, or data management. Intersect360 Research
reports available in this series include the following segmentations:

Products and Services: servers, storage, networks, software, service, cloud, other
Vertical markets: academia, national security, national research labs, national agencies, state or local governments, bio sciences, chemical
engineering, consumer product manufacturing, electronics, energy, financial services, large product manufacturing, media and entertainment, retail,
transportation, other
Regions: North America, EMEA, Asia-Pacific, Latin America
Server class (HPC server revenue): entry-level, midrange, high-end, supercomputer
Cloud categories (HPC cloud revenue): raw cycles, cloud storage, application hosting (SaaS), infrastructure hosting (IaaS, PaaS), other
Software categories (HPC software revenue): operating environments, developer tools, middleware, storage software, transfer costs, application
software, other
Services categories (HPC services revenue): maintenance and repair, system engineering, system integration, training, programming services,
other
HPC server market shares (current year only, not forecast)
HPC storage market shares (current year only, not forecast)

Total HPC market revenue reached $39.0 billion in 2019, growing 8.2% over 2018. This was the tenth consecutive year of growth for the HPC market. The 8.2%
growth slightly exceeded the 7.2% growth Intersect360 Research had forecasted for the year. Reversing the trend from the past six years, government
spending took the lead in growth in 2019 and will continue to lead overall through the five-year forecast.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS 4

INTRODUCTION 6

What Is HPC? 9

HPC 2019 MARKET PERFORMANCE: VERTICAL MARKETS 10

Table 1: Total HPC Market Revenue ($000), 2019 vs. 2018, by Vertical Market 10

COVID-19 PANDEMIC FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS 11

Figure 1: The Shape of an HPC Recession 13

Figure 2: HPC Revenue ($000) as a Result of 2009 Recession, 2008 – 2013 14

2019–2024 HPC MARKET FORECAST: VERTICAL MARKETS 15

Table 2: Total HPC Market Revenue ($000), 2019 Actuals, 2020 to 2024 Forecast, by Vertical Market 18

Table 3: Year-over-Year Revenue Change, 2020 to 2024 Forecast, by Vertical Market 18

Table 4: Total HPC Market Revenue ($000), 2019 Actuals, 2020 to 2024 Forecast, by Economic Sector 19

Figure 3: Total HPC Market Revenue ($000), 2019 Actuals, 2020 to 2024 Forecast, by Vertical Market 19

CONCLUSIONS 20

APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY 21

COVID-19 22

APPENDIX B: HPC MARKET DYNAMICS MODEL AND FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS 23

Market Maturity 23

Fundamental Market Dynamics Model 24

Figure A1: Traditional HPC Market Dynamics 25

Fundamental Market Assumptions 26

Fundamental Drivers 26

Fundamental Market Dampeners 27

Model-Based Assumptions 28

Basic Market Drivers 28

Basic Market Dampeners 29

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