This Intersect360 Research report presents the 2020 total market model and five-year forecast for the overall High Performance Computing (HPC) market,
segmented into product and services categories, including servers, storage, services, software, networks, cloud, and other products. The forecast horizon
is from 2021 through 2025, with compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) using 2020 as a base. Because 2020 was anomalous in many ways due to the COVID-19
pandemic, we also show CAGRs using 2019 as the base year.
Intersect360 Research defines HPC as the use of servers, clusters, and supercomputers—plus associated software, tools, components, storage, and services—for
scientific, engineering, or analytical tasks that are particularly intensive in computation, memory usage, or data management. Intersect360 Research
reports available in this series include the following segmentations:
Total HPC market revenue fell to $38.9 billion in 2020, down 0.2% from 2019, the first year-over-year market decline since 2009, attributable directly
to the economic effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic. The essentially flat market outperformed the 3.7% decline Intersect360 Research had forecasted
for the year.
As expected, the pandemic economy created tremendous short-term disruptions. Servers and software, the two biggest spending categories by revenue, had
the largest year-over-year declines. The storage segment proved resilient and remained flat. Meanwhile, cloud computing underwent eye-popping, 78.8%
growth; on top of an underlying double-digit growth rate, organizations turned to cloud computing to cope with both accelerated projects and deferred
Coming off the anomalous 2020, there will be a rebound in HPC spending in 2021, as deferred projects begin to get fulfilled, leading to a short-term 16.4%
HPC market gain. In the long run the HPC market will return to steady growth and will exceed $60 billion in 2025, corresponding to a 9.1% CAGR using
the down-year 2020 as a base, or a 7.5% CAGR from 2019. Cloud computing will continue very high growth rates, affecting the rest of the market. The
near-term effects of COVID-19 vary significantly by year and by segment; the methodology is fully described in this report.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
What Is HPC? 8
HPC 2020 MARKET PERFORMANCE: PRODUCT CATEGORIES 9
New Segments 10
Market Performance 11
Table 1: Total HPC Market Revenue ($000), 2020 vs. 2019, by Product Category 11
ECONOMIC DYNAMICS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC 12
Figure 1: The Shape of an HPC Recession 14
Figure 2: HPC Revenue ($000) as a Result of 2009 Recession, 2008 – 2013 14
Base Years for Compound Annual Growth Rates: 2019 vs. 2020 15
Table 2: Comparison of Base Years for CAGR Calculations 15
2021–2025 HPC MARKET FORECAST: PRODUCT CATEGORIES 16
Table 3: Total HPC Market Revenue ($000), 2019-20 Actuals, 2021 to 2025 Forecast, by Product Category 17
Table 4: HPC Market Revenue Share, 2019-20 Actuals, 2021 to 2025 Forecast, by Product Category 17
Table 5: Year-over-Year Revenue Change, 2020 Actual, 2021 to 2025 Forecast, by Product Category 18
Figure 3: Total HPC Market Revenue ($000), 2019-20 Actuals, 2021 to 2025 Forecast, by Product Category 18
APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY 21
APPENDIX B: HPC MARKET DYNAMICS MODEL AND FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS 23
Market Maturity 23
Fundamental Market Dynamics Model 24
Figure A1: Traditional HPC Market Dynamics 25
Fundamental Market Assumptions 26
Fundamental Drivers 26
Fundamental Market Dampeners 27
Model-Based Assumptions 28
Basic Market Drivers 28
Basic Market Dampeners 29
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